The member load forecast starts and ends with the members. Data is provided by them to produce a forecast result that is then reviewed and approved by them.

Missy Schell, Basin Electric load forecast analyst III, says load forecasters understand the broad economic issues facing our members, but it’s members’ local knowledge and expertise that’s critical to informing and guiding the way we analyze their unique systems and predict their needs. “Each year we produce a load forecast for every Class A distribution member, and Class C members, excluding the members of Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, as they have their own forecasting department,” Schell says. “The forecast period is the end of the current year through 2050. We forecast this long of a duration because one of the key uses of the forecast is transmission and power supply planning, which need to utilize a long-range view of the system.”

Members file certain federal and financial forms detailing their annual sales by consumer category, and Basin Electric obtains this information from them, along with their monthly demand and energy purchases from their power supplier(s).

“We then analyze the statistical metrics of the models to make sure there is an appropriate confidence level to the forecast outputs,” Schell says. “We share the modeled results with each member via a report specific to their cooperative. We rely on their feedback to inform us if our mathematical predictions are in line with their local conditions and economies.”

Member feedback is integrated to arrive at a final forecast, approved by them and their board of directors. The final result is a forecast of Basin Electric’s monthly demand and energy sales, which is used in budgeting, financial forecasting, rate setting, and transmission and power supply planning.

Collaborating with members on the forecast inspires cooperation, honesty, and accountability. Basin Electric works with its members to analyze, update, implement, and innovate rates to accommodate the struggles or opportunities members are seeing within their service territories.

Providing affordable rates to our members is a priority. “Since Basin Electric is a not-for-profit cooperative, any rate changes or deviations cause cost shifts to our members,” says Elizabeth Erhardt, Basin Electric manager of Member Rates. Over the past year, Erhardt’s workload shifted heavily to one issue: crypto and large load rates.

“I had the opportunity to work closely with other teams at Basin Electric to determine what would be impacted with the implementation of these rates.”

Load forecasting and rate design focus on providing continued stability for our members, and through shared values, mutual respect, and collaboration, members are supported by a cooperative that prioritizes their needs and well-being.